The presidential primaries might as well be over, according to some media outlets and pundits.
So what if nobody’s voted yet? The other candidates don’t have a chance! You might as well go amuse yourself with the NFL, the World Series or the latest chatbot. We’ll wake you when it’s time for the general election.
Oh, the press tried to keep hope alive, if only to give its members something to do. This candidate is up three points, that candidate could have a breakout moment at the debate – but they’re not even convincing themselves, and seem ready to throw in the towel.
It’s Trump. It’s Biden. And it’s just too bad if you don’t like the rematch.
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Now I shy away from such sweeping declarations because stuff happens in politics, but if everyone expects Trump and Biden to win – and that message is constantly reinforced by the media – then it almost becomes a fait accomplishment.
It’s not that the pundits are going out on some crazy limb. The odds are extremely high that Trump and Biden will be the nominees.
Trump, for instance, has a 40-point lead or more in recent national polls over his closest challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. He has a lesser, but still commanding, lead in many state polls, for those who believe he may get knocked off in Iowa or New Hampshire.
The former president has been indicted four times, but that only boosts his standing. He is blowing off the debates, which barely helps his challengers. He has an unshakable loyalty among the MAGA base. I’ve never seen anything like it.
The Washington Post went so far as to contact Republicans who are backing rival candidates, yet still expect Trump to win.
“I just don’t see a path for anybody that’s not Donald Trump right now,” says Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, who is supporting his governor in the race.
Columnist E.J. Dionne blames the challengers, writing in a recent piece: “Republican voters once open to someone other than the former president are concluding that if they’re going to get Trumpism, they might as well go with the guy who invented it.”
A few weeks ago, news site 538 asked: “Is the 2024 Republican presidential primary already over? If you just look at the polls, you’d be forgiven for thinking so.”
“The Inevitable Nominee?” asked the Wall Street Journal. “Trump’s Election Momentum Builds Even as Legal Problems Mount.”
Reporters like to create the illusion of suspense, so they can hop on planes for expense-account trips and hype the hell out of Super Tuesday. But if the primaries aren’t so super? They find themselves pushing up against reality. Nobody wants to ruin their reputation if Trump runs away with it.
And it’s a bittersweet pill for them to swallow, because most of the media can’t stand Trump or view him as a threat to democracy.
A few months ago, many pundits were happy with the Trump-is-inevitable scenario, because they viewed him as the one candidate Biden could beat. Now, with Trump, for all his baggage, in a dead heat with his successor, they’re not loving it so much.
So they’re forced to admit what they now see as obvious. The race is over. Finished. Kaput. Fuggedaboutit!
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As for Biden, with his abysmal poll ratings, nobody doubts he’ll be the Democratic nominee if he doesn’t have a major health problem before the conventions. Nobody is even polling for a largely non-existent Democratic contest.
Sure, a majority of Dems don’t want him to run for a second term. Sure, huge majorities question whether he has the mental and physical acuity for more than five more years in office.
But he’s the president, and having first sought the office more than three decades ago, he wants to hold onto the job. What politician wants to give up power? You can get used to Air Force One. And with no major-league Democrat willing to challenge Biden (sorry, Marianne Williamson), he’s a shoo-in for the nomination.
Now some of you may be thinking: Who elected the media to decide the presidential nominations? The answer is no one. If Trump and Biden weren’t in such strong positions, we’d have the usual rollercoaster rides, with different candidates surging at different times.
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In previous years, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Pete Buttigieg closed strong to win the Iowa caucuses. None of them won the nomination, but at least they made things interesting.
But why worry about all that? The media geniuses have done the thinking for you. It’s Trump. It’s Biden. Get over it.
Touting his network’s latest poll, NBC’s Steve Kornacki said, compared to the last survey, “Trump didn’t lose any ground.” And his rivals didn’t gain much. That’s been the story.
If you don’t like the narrative, hey, don’t blame me. We all know the media are never wrong. Right?
