Last Friday, responding to questions about recent strikes on Crimea, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov, acknowledged, albeit indirectly, that Ukraine was behind them. He also warned that there will be more drone attacks on Russian warships.
Drone warfare is a critical component to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s new asymmetric strategy, likely intended to ensure that Ukrainian armed forces are able to stay in the fight, over the long run, even if they are unable to secure a clear military victory over their highly entrenched opponent.
Zelenskyy probably calculates that by systematically employing small scale drone attacks, Ukraine may be able to frustrate, demoralize and exhaust the Russian forces and psychologically dislodge Russian civilians. Zelenskyy likely realizes that the war is unwinnable, and that his best bet is to try and convince Vladimir Putin that the costs of a protracted war of attrition outweigh the benefits of a subdued Ukraine.
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Having launched the drone warfare program, dubbed the Army of Drones, Zelenskyy installed Fedorov, the 32-year-old minister, to spearhead it with the mission of creating a “new type of army,” which would capitalize on the achievements of commercial industry and have a private-sector mindset. He promised $100 million in donor funding.
Despite multiple challenges – such as shortage of components, significant red tape in the Ukrainian government and corruption in the defense industry – the drone program has become a remarkable success. Ukrainians have trained 10,000 new drone pilots this summer with another 10,000 operators being prepared.
A specialized drone team, the Achilles Company, has become proficient at performing the so-called drone “swarm,” a tactic when a large number of pre-programmed drones fly in a synchronized choreography, attacking the target simultaneously. To mitigate shortages in components, Ukrainians took apart some of the cluster munitions provided to them by the U.S. and placed small bomblets contained in them inside their drones.
Reconnaissance and bombardment are the two principal missions of Ukraine’s drone program. Reconnaissance drones fly over enemy lines, identifying targets, monitoring Russian maneuvers and providing feedback to Ukrainian artillery to correct targeting. Combat drones, also known as “kamikaze” or “first-person-view,” destroy or damage the target by delivering, at a very high speed, up to three pounds of explosives.
In the past month, there has been a massive uptick in Ukrainian UAV strikes targeting Russian assets, including deep in Russia – fuel depots, logistics, ammunition dumps and delivery routes. At the end of August, more than a dozen drone strikes hit the heart of Moscow. During the same month, a flagship Russian long-range supersonic bomber Tupolev Tu-22M was obliterated at Soltsy-2 airbase in the Novgorod region.
Another form of tactical innovation that Ukraine brought to the battlefield are maritime drones, also known as “uncrewed surface” vessels or “USVs.” These can be weaponized robot jet skis or attack boats that carry warheads as heavy as 1,900-pounds. They ram into their targets – such as a warship or a submarine – kamikaze-style.
While drone boats rarely sink their targets, they can render these vessels inoperable. Most of Ukraine’s USVs were manufactured locally, using commercial engines and other components. Ukraine has employed these sea drones with extraordinary success against Russian Black Sea naval assets. Fearing Ukrainian kamikaze drones called ‘Sea Babies,’ Russian warships are now hesitant to sail freely in the Black Sea. In July, remotely controlled Sea Babies were used to knock out portions of the Russian-built Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea to the mainland.
Similar to having a specialized drone unit within the 92nd Mechanized Brigade of the ground forces, Zelenskyy created a new naval unit, the 385th Separate Brigade, which operates sea drones. It is reportedly the first such unit in the world. With the assistance from Western intelligence and by developing special sequencing of attacks to overwhelm the opponent’s defenses, Ukrainian drone operators can often overcome Russia’s air defenses and electronic warfare systems, which are some of the world’s best.
Ukraine is on track to expand its drone fleet, having increased its aerial drone production in 2023 by more than 100 times, compared with last year, according to Minister Fedorov. In addition, Kyiv secured a promise from Germany to deliver 50 uncrewed surface drones.
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The U.S. pioneered the use of UAVs in Afghanistan and Iraq during the counter-insurgency warfare. Using the MQ-1 Predator and its successor, the Reaper, the military was able to eliminate America’s enemies, such as the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani who was killed with a precision drone strike outside Baghdad airport in January 2020.
Ukraine is advancing the use of drone warfare by integrating UAVs into its fighting units and the broader order of battle. It is also experimenting with artificial intelligence to locate targets and guide drones to them in the event that the Russians are jamming the drone’s external communications.
Ukraine’s drone warfighting tactic is a sophisticated version of irregular warfare, which is typically used by a weaker force to disrupt and negate the military advantage of a more powerful force. Despite the fact that the United States and Europe provided a number of advanced weapons systems and munitions to Kyiv, the Ukrainian army is significantly outmatched by the Russian military, which the Pentagon views as a near-peer competitor to the U.S. military.
This form of warfare is here to stay, as Ukrainians seek to bring the war home to Russia. Making ordinary Russians feel the pain of war is part of Zelenskyy’s strategy to keep psychological pressure on the adversary and to unbalance Putin and his regime.
Whether Kyiv’s tactical brilliance eventually will translate into a strategic blow to Moscow is a big uncertainty. In the meantime, what is clear is that Ukraine is methodically eroding Putin’s red lines. What was unthinkable a year ago is reality today – Mother Russia is no longer a sanctuary.
