After former President Trump floated holding a rally at Madison Square Garden and a campaign stop in the heavily-Democratic South Bronx during a town hall with Fox News’ Laura Ingraham, analysts considered what had been an impossible thought until recently – Trump winning New York state.
“I think there’s a chance to win New York,” Trump told Ingraham on Tuesday. “The people [there] are very, very unhappy.”
Responding to a poll showing Trump trailing Biden in the Empire State by about half of his losing margins in 2020 and 2016, former George W. Bush deputy chief of staff Karl Rove cautioned that figure only represented one poll.
However, he highlighted it correctly depicts Trump’s “ascent” against Biden.
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“It shows, at least in New York, some of these issues, like immigration and the cost to our communities of illegal immigration, is coming home,” Rove said.
A Republican has not won New York’s delegates since Ronald Reagan did twice, in 1980 and 1984.
The Empire State, however, has been a veritable wellspring of big-name presidents, from Trump to both Roosevelts, as well as Millard Fillmore and “Old Kinderhook,” Martin Van Buren.
New Jersey native Grover Cleveland is also often considered another of New York’s contributions to the White House, as he was the state’s governor prior to seeking the presidency.
Trump has sought to follow Cleveland’s lead in becoming only the second president to hold the office for two nonconsecutive terms.
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A Trump stop in The Bronx would also be a daring sight for a Republican, as one of the more recent GOP leaders to campaign for the White House there, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who in 2016 was faced with threats of a walkout by students at a school, and was shouted down by protesters who yelled: “Get out of the Bronx.”
New York State Republicans, however, have appeared solidly behind Trump, as he won every county but New York County in 2016’s primary. The latter went to former Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
On Fox News, Rove noted that Republicans also “came close” to taking the governor’s mansion for the first time since George Pataki departed in 2006. Former Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y., lost to Gov. Kathy Hochul by only six points.
“I think it’s a stretch in the presidential race, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers tighten from where they were four years ago, because New Yorkers have seen it up close and personal,” Rove added.
He added that the rest of the state is also likely fed up with liberal policies, such as residents of Westchester and Putnam Counties who have to witness Biden administration ghost-flights full of migrants “dumping people” at the region’s airport.
Meanwhile, Fox News contributor Juan Williams said a Trump rally at MSG might be “pretty fun” for the GOP base, but may be an expensive boondoggle from a Democratic perspective.
Williams cited how Democrats flipped the congressional district of the expelled George Santos, part of which includes the city’s borough of Queens.
“You just look at all the kind of elections that have been taking place in New York State … It would be an unlikely outcome,” he said.
However, Williams appeared to agree with Rove that New Yorkers are growing increasingly discontent with its Democrat-led leadership.
