It is hard to understate the problems House Speaker-designate Steve Scalise, R-La., may face to eventually win the speakership.
“I don’t think he’s going to get it,” said one senior House Republican member to Fox. “He came in so low.”
Senior House leadership sources were utterly shocked and dismayed Wednesday night at the resistance by rank-and-file Republicans to potentially electing House Speaker-designate Steve Scalise, R-La., as speaker after he won the GOP conference nod behind closed doors on a secret ballot.
Scalise continued to work individually with Republicans to gain their support. But there is a long way to go. In fact, the fight could take days. However, things do have a way of coming together quickly on Capitol Hill, and there could still be a floor vote Thursday.
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Fox was told it was believed that Scalise could command as many as 150 ballots. And the endorsement after the vote by House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, apparently did very little. In fact, Jordan’s effect in boosting Scalise was so paltry that it underscored two things: Jordan has very little juice and overall, there is very little excitement among House Republicans for either Scalise or Jordan.
“We don’t have a Paul Ryan,” said one senior House Republican, referring to former House Speaker Paul Ryan, who salvaged Republicans after former House Speaker John Boehner resigned unexpectedly in 2015.
Let’s consider the Scalise math. He commanded only 113 ballots in the GOP Conference yesterday. Had he come in at 112, the GOP conference would have needed to go to a second ballot.
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But look at where Scalise’s support came from. He scored the votes of the three non-voting delegates to Congress who are part of the Republican Conference but can not vote for speaker on the floor: Dels. Amata Radewagen of American Samoa, James Moylan of Guam and Resident Commissioner Jenniffer Gonzalez-Colon of Puerto Rico.
Fox is told that the fact that Scalise “won” because of the support of the three delegates infuriated some House Republicans. Those members are eligible to vote in the conference, but they lack a floor vote because they are not full members.
As it stands now, there’s more opposition to Scalise’s speakership than there was opposition to McCarthy. In essence, the House appears in a worse position than it was.
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Fox is told that the House may be in a stasis for days unless Scalise begins to capture support quickly.
Moreover, Fox is told that there is no way to “undo” the speaker vote in conference for Scalise. There are major parliamentary hurdles within the conference that just aren’t mathematically realistic.
“He’s the speaker-designee,” said one knowledgeable source. “He’s there until he decides he’s not.”
So what can Republicans do now?
Fox has also learned there are a few Republicans exploring ways to potentially empower House Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., with temporary powers through mid-November. Such a scenario would get the House operational for the time being, prospectively avert a government shutdown and buy the GOP time to elect a new speaker.
The other option?
“Resurrect McCarthy,” said one GOP source.
Although how to do that is unclear.
