Political analyst Mark Halperin argued that Vice President Kamala Harris may not win the essential battleground state of Pennsylvania and that could cost her the 2024 election.
“I’ve been asking people two questions in the state, national strategists to the campaigns, one is, who is currently ahead in the race, and where does Pennsylvania rank in terms of 1-7 of the states that Harris is most likely to win,” Halperin said during a livestream on his media platform 2WAY on Wednesday.
None of the strategists Halperin spoke to ranked Pennsylvania as the most likely battleground state Harris wins, and one strategist put Pennsylvania near the bottom of battleground states she was likely to win, he said.
“As you can see here, this source of mine, whom I trust very much, a very smart person, put Pennsylvania sixth, the sixth most likely state for Harris to win. If that’s true and Harris loses Pennsylvania, almost certainly not going to win [the 2024 race],” he said.
While it can still happen, it would be “very tough” to accomplish, he argued.
That prediction was backed by two Democratic insiders Halperin spoke with on Wednesday who “know the state very well.”
They believed Harris was “not only behind” but was “likely to lose the state,” he said.
“They didn’t rule out that she could win it, but they thought it was unlikely. If you believe that… you can’t make her the favorite, and you almost can’t even say this race is a toss-up,” Halperin continued.
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“This is the ball game, right? This is it, the question of ‘where do you get 270 electoral votes?’” he continued. “If Harris can’t win Pennsylvania… very difficult to see what her best path is.”
Pennsylvania is one of seven swing states that decided the 2020 election between former President Trump and President Biden, and that both campaigns see as the states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential showdown.
National polls show the race remains tight between the two candidates, with the most recent Real Clear Politics polling average showing Harris with a slim 1.9-point lead over Trump nationally. In Pennsylvania, they remain tied at 47%.
The two candidates will be in the Keystone State this week, where they are set to face-off for next week’s prime time debate taking place in Philadelphia.
Trump will headline a Fox News town hall on Wednesday night, and Harris plans to return to the battleground state on Thursday.
Political commentator Karl Rove warned Democrats on Tuesday that the narrow lead Harris seems to have may not be enough for her to defeat Trump in November.
“On this day in 2020, Joe Biden was up 7.1% above Donald Trump in the Real Clear Politics average. And at this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 6.3%. As you remember, the election came down to a handful of votes in a handful of states,” Rove said in an interview on Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom.”
Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser and Jeffrey Clark contributed to this article.
