A momentum-shifting breakout moment at the first Republican debate in on August 23, would permanently alter the political landscape for Republicans. Easy to say, incredibly difficult to do.
The key will be to give voters more of what they loved about President Trump and less of what they disliked about him. That’s true for Trump and everyone else on the debate stage. The problem is, there is only one Donald Trump. Pretend to be him and you’re done.
By fixating on his 2020 election loss and training so much of his formidable firepower within his own tent, Trump is actually giving voters more of what they hated and less of what they liked about him. They want to see someone fighting the Deep State, not discrediting Republicans and conservative policies in red states out of spite.
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And that dissonance creates an opening for someone to step into on August 23. A candidate who could give voters the unscripted boldness of former President Trump without his vindictive pettiness could change the race. Voters want fearless pushback against the administrative state without the incompetent and self-indulgent personnel decisions.
It will be a tricky balance to strike. It won’t be good enough to simply be a pale imitation of Donald Trump. These candidates need to show that they, authentically, have the ability to stand up to the administrative state, push back against the biased media, dismantle destructive policies, and do it all without inflaming the very people whose votes will be needed to pass those policies. The candidate who convinces us that can be done could turn this debate into a watershed event.
It’s always a delicate needle to thread. Too bold and they alienate voters they will need in the general. Too milquetoast and they conjure up comparisons to former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney – whose current performance in the Senate has been more popular with Democrats than Republicans.
If Trump can be the best version of Trump, I believe he will win the nomination and prevail in a general election. A Donald Trump who has learned from his mistakes, who could mitigate his weaknesses and expand on his strengths, would be unstoppable.
Yet, many believe it’s just not in his DNA. No doubt he has the strongest base of support, but can he expand the tent and build a coalition to win in November 2024?
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Unless or until he becomes that candidate, the race is on. As Trump praises Democrat lockdown governors like New York’s Andrew Cuomo and California’s Gavin Newsom while vilifying one of America’s most successful Republican governors, he creates an opening for a rival.
Polling still shows many voters are sticking with Trump, but if one of the candidates can deliver on Trump’s promises without Trump’s baggage, momentum could shift quickly.
No one wants to lose this race and face the possibility of a puppeteer administration of the geriatric Biden or the incompetent Kamala Harris.
Many observers would convincingly argue Trump is already the nominee given his highly impressive poll numbers. His numbers are so strong he may not even participate in the debate, but nobody will really know until 9:00 pm ET on August 23 on Fox News Channel.
The first votes in the primary season aren’t until January 2024. So much is going to happen over the next six months and the biggest event thus far takes place in 8 days on Wednesday night.
